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Traditional form analysis came in for plenty
of savaging in the Racing Post during what should
have been Cheltenham week last month when the
paper's chief tipsters revealed some of their
secrets. Those sort of features were long overdue
in a paper that would be much improved if it included
more column inches on the art of picking winners.
One of the most fruitful areas of study for detailed
analysis would surely be track and draw bias,
an avenue of study that's second nature to form
students in America for instance.
For those interested in getting the latest
details on draw and weight bias in races then
look no further than David Renham's BIAS 2001,
the author's excellent follow up to last year's
volume on the same subjects. Renham's book, twice
the size of the original work, covers a detailed
five-season analysis of the most consistently
biased courses in the country by draw and then
those that exhibit bias under specific conditions
(eg when the stalls are placed on one side of
the track).
He looks at the most profitable ways of following
horses that run well from poor draws, at the effect
of weight carried by horses in handicaps and reveals
a simple system which combines draw and weight
bias that has shown a clear profit over the past
five seasons.
What is most impressive about Renham's study
is the breadth of detail included in the 92-page
volume and the clear-headed analysis that accompanies
the statistics and trends he unearths at the various
tracks under scrutiny. There are a whole host
of useful signposts to finding winners contained
in Renham's work which is well worth the price.
Tony Paley (Odds On and the Guardian)
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