| 21/09/2002 | Message for Saturday 21 Sept |
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Message for Saturday 21st September 2002 Bet strength recommendations - none Horses to note - The Trader (2.35 Newbury) - 1 point win. Take the Tote's 9-1 if you can. Surrey also go that price. Lady Bear (2.50 Ayr) - 0.5 points each way. Take the 20-1 with Blue Square or Chandlers. Flat turf system bets NDB - no qualifiers DSB - no qualifiers ------ Review of Friday racing The Silver Cup did not produce the desired result but Tayif ran a decent race to finish 4th at 12-1. NDB system bet Ground Zero (Ayr 4.20) failed to make the frame, while Monsieur Bond finished 2nd at 5-1 in the Newbury 3.25. A blank day. Saturday racing As with many of the big sprints, I have done a statistical look at the Ayr Gold Cup : 1. DRAW The draw definitely can have a role to play in the outcome of this sprint, but in recent years, any bias has been difficult to predict. However, from 1992 to 1997, the draw seemed a key factor with the winner coming from stalls 28, 8, 29, 27, 28 and 24. Very high draws had the call in every year bar 1993. Indeed, in 1995 and 1996 a high draw was extremely significant - in 1995 the first seven horses home were drawn 27, 20, 28, 26, 1, 29, 23; in 1996 the first six horses home were drawn 28, 29, 27, 25, 2, 20. One would think that the Silver Cup (run usually an hour earlier, but run yesterday) would provide some draw clues and to a certain extent it does. This is a race for the horses that fail to make the "cut" for the Gold Cup. This consolation race attracts a big field (27 + runners) also, and in seven of the last ten years, the draw position of the winner of the Silver Cup has been within 5 stalls of the winner of the Gold Cup as the following table shows : Year Draw position of Silver Cup winner Draw position of Gold Cup winner Difference between the two winners' draws 1992 11 28 17 1993 10 8 2 1994 8 29 21 1995 25 27 2 1996 27 28 1 1997 28 24 4 1998 4 8 4 1999 14 17 3 2000 26 7 19 2001 17 22 5 2. AGE Seven of the last ten winners of the Ayr Gold Cup have been 4 year olds, with one win a piece for the 3, 5 and 7 year olds. 7 wins from 82 runners equates to an 8.5% strike rate. Compare that with the record of 3 years olds (1.4% strike rate) and 5 year olds (2.2% strike rate), you can see the best age group to concentrate on. 3. WEIGHT CARRIED There are no real trends or patterns in terms of weight carried. 4. FORM 3 of the last 10 winners won their previous race, while another 6 had won at least once earlier in the season. Only last year's winner Continent had not previously won during the current season. The finishing position of a horse last time out seems quite important with only 2 winners having been unplaced on their previous start. 5. PRICE Only one favourite in the last 10 years has won (Coastal Bluff at 3-1 in 1996). Indeed, only one other favourite has finished in the first four during this period (Gaelic Storm 4th at 8-1 in 2000). The price range that has been the most successful is the 10-1 to 18-1 range with 7 winners coming from that range. It seems therefore, the best area to concentrate on is near the head of the market, but avoiding the favourite. There were some stats to mull over - now a look at some of the horses I think have solid claims : Halmahera - winner of the Portland and ran a cracker in the stewards Cup before that. Loves this type of race - should be thereabouts. Royal Millenium - well touted by the press and looks set to run a big race. 4 year old so has the trends on his side. Tom Tun - would have preferred more "cut" but a lively outsider for me. Artie - another who would prefer more "cut" but a progressive 3 year old who could go well at a decent price. Funfair Wane - cannot dismiss Dandy Nicholls. This looks his most likely winner - Croeso Croeso - progressive 4 year old who take step up in class here. Will need everything to fall right if good enough. The Tatling - good run from the wrong side in the Portland. Big price at around 33s. To conclude - there are just 7 of the 28 to consider. I think Halmahera will make another brave bid in a big field handicap and for each way players is one to consider, as is Artie at a price. The draw has been inconclusive this week so if you "play" I suggest backing one either side. Remaining thoughts : Ayr 2.50 - Lady Bear showed an amazing turn of foot to win last time out. Will need a career best effort here, but the 20-1 offered today looks too tempting to ignore. Softer ground would have seent the horse a shorter price, but acts well enough on good ground. The 8 draw is a good one in this mile contest. Newbury 2.35 - decent little sprint. I expect Smokin Beau to go well and Cyclone Connie has real scope for improvement, but with so many front runners they may go off too quick. The Trader eases back in class and has a good record on fast ground. Likes this course too. Warwick 4.30 - Jelba looked back to form last time. Will win this easily if the horse can repeat that sort of form. Ayr 5.10 - Rudik may provide Dandy Nicholls with a winner today even if he fails to land the big sprint. Inconsistent, but very dangerous in this type of race. Cheers Dave Copyright 2002 www.Drawn2win.co.uk |
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