| 05/10/2002 | Message for Saturday 5th Oct |
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Message for Saturday 5th October 2002 Bet strength recommendations - FULL MEMBERS ONLY (they have a bet today and there could be up to three bets tomorrow, so don't delay and join the fastest growing service in the country). Only one bet advised this week - Demonstrate WON 5-2 (from 7-2). Last week we had Madrasse WINNING at 12-1 and 2 Saturdays ago Lady Bear WON at 16-1. Over 100 points up to level 1 point stakes this flat season!! Horses to note - none Flat turf system bets : NDB - no qualifiers DSB - no qualifiers ------ Review of Friday racing The Newmarket 5.05 was the sprint discussed in detail. No bets given but the short list of six provided the 1st, 3rd and 4th at 2-1, 25-1 and 12-1 respectively. Quite pleasing in a 19 runner handicap. The other race discussed briefly (Lingfield 4.10) saw Smith N Allan Oils leave it too late finishing 5th of 20. Saturday racing Lots of good racing on Saturday - let's start with a simple 35 runner handicap to unravel !! Newmarket 3.55 - the Cambridgeshire is never easy to sort out, but let's have a look at my personal shortlist : Zonergem - impressive winner last time and has gone from a 33-1 ante post shot to around 4-1 favourite. Looks the class horse of the race, but 4-1 is a crazy price if you consider what can go wrong for a hold up horse in a 35 runner event. If the horse gets the breaks you would expect the horse to win, but it is a big "if". Drawn 10. Lady Bear - did us proud a couple of weeks ago at Ayr winning at 16-1. The ground is the concern, but Newmarket are watering which will certainly help. The step up in trip may help also on this ground. Well handicapped as the horse runs off a mark of 82 (effectively 87 with a penalty) - she is actually rated in the mid 90s, but due to the early race closure, the horse escapes carrying her true weight. Drawn 25. Atlantic Ace - come from behind horse that will need luck in running. However, at a price of 20-1 the horse represents some each way appeal. Won well last time and stable have made positive noises this week. Drawn 31. Funfair - Fallon is on board and is bullish about this horse. Drawn 27 and hold solid claims after winning well at York last time; albeit from a good draw. Kirovski - consistent performer at around 10 furlongs. Likes fast ground and should go well from the 35 draw. Ran a blinder at York back in July from a desperate draw when finishing second to Vintage Premium. Has gone up plenty in the weights this year mind. Muchea - two wins in last 6 weeks have been fully deserved. Tries this trip for the first time, and looks quite high in the weights again, but likes the hurly burly of big field events and at 33-1, there are worse each way options. You need to remember that Muchea finished within a short head of Funfair at York on the 22nd August. That was from a poor draw (Funfair was well drawn), and the odds of 7-1 for Funfair and 33-1 for Muchea don't quite "marry up" when looking back at that race. Waverley - although this horse plies his trade over longer trips, a fast run 9f should still be OK. Decent 2nd last time, and drawn 33. Another big priced horse with each way claims. To conclude : seven of the thirty five mentioned in the shortlist. Zonergem has a massive chance, but it is a massive risk punting at the likely odds. Each way options look best and head for a bookie that offers 5 places rather than 4. I think Atlantic Ace could run a big race at decent odds, as could Waverley. I also would not rule out Lady Bear; I'd be punting on her if it were soft, but ran well enough on good to firm last time to suggest that she acts reasonably well on it. Sandown 2.55 - this nursery should see higher draws have a slight edge. Indeed I feel the three most likely winners will come from stalls 8, 9 and 10. Go Polar (drawn 8) looks the most likely winner. The produced a very good effort at Kempton two races ago from what looked like a poor draw. Scythian (drawn 10) has put in back to back performances including a 2nd over course and distance last time out. Malapropism (drawn 9) has been a little disappointing last two runs, but would be interesting if getting back to earlier form. As stated earlier I think Polar Way will win this. Redcar 4.10 - this looks to have two horses that are better than the rest. Monsieur Bond and Tout Seul. The other to consider at a price is Sharplaw Venture who looks on the upgrade. We were on Monsieur Bond last time and it is tempting to go in again, but I will resist. Newmarket 5.05 - open finale, but it is about time Kareeb won. Has the right pilot in Darryl Holland and hopefully will be produced late through a gap! Swynford Welcome was 2nd in this last year so cannot be dismissed, while Goodenough Mover may bounce back to form over this longer trip. |
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