| 07/09/2002 | Message for Saturday 7 Sept |
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Message for Saturday 7th September 2002 Bet strength recommendations - none Horses to note - none Flat turf system bets - no qualifiers DSB - no qualifiers ------ Review of Friday racing Really close to another a cracking double figure priced winner - NDB system bet Time for Music (Epsom 4.50) came 2nd at 10-1. We cannot complain though with so many good priced winners this summer - we are overdue a few near misses I suppose. Meanwhile Telori (same race) did not make the frame while, Sea Storm came 3rd at 3-1. Saturday racing The weather could be the key today so my first words should be heeded - watch the weather and any subsequent going changes. Hence, with the weather for the day unclear, I cannot recommend a bet at this stage. Haydock 3.30 - the rain on Friday and overnight eased the ground somewhat and with more showers forecast, one would expect the ground to ease further come post time. Continent will surely go close despite having a different jockey to normal on board. Any rain will not harm his chances. Significant rain will play into the hands of stablemate Bahamian Pirate. There are two big handicap sprints today with 20+ runners : Kempton 2.50 - high numbers should be favoured here, but in the 2000 race, low totally dominated so we cannot be too bullish about it. Also, we need to keep an eye on the weather - 2mm of rain overnight so the ground is still riding good to firm. Some of the candidates are discussed below : Cubism - probably very well drawn in 22. Back to form last time and still very well handicapped on old form. However, will be short enough for me in terms of price. Needs fast ground. Green Line - back in trip after decent 4th at Goodwood over 7f. Rare to see Michael Stoute have a runner in a big field sprint handicap. Draw 3 is a worry. Lord Protector - another horse back in trip. Has had some luck with the draw this time in 20 (or so it seems). Any rain will help considerably. Toldya - been running well in some decent handicaps. Drawn 8 which won't help, but still has an each way squeak, as long as high numbers do not have a huge advantage over low. Fearby Cross - has been punted on in recent races. Drawn 14 and would like a drop of rain. Roses of Spring - drawn 17 and will a big price due to poor season. Ran well two runs ago at Folkestone when showing a return to form. Disappointing at Yarmouth in the week, but would not consign to scrap-heap just yet. Sailing Shoes - needs fast ground and well drawn in 19. Any repeat of the level of performance when winning at Thirsk in May would put Sailing Shoes bang in there with a chance. Could very well lead them up the far rail. To conclude : probably worth concentrating on draws 13 to 24 (top half of draw), if this season is anything to go by. At this time of year, it is often worth looking for a big price to get placed (ore even win) - Sailing Shoes could go very well if it stays good or firmer, but consistency isn't his strong suit. If it rains, Fearby Cross should go well and possibly Lord Protector too. If low draws are favoured (or at least compete) Green Line could be interesting. Haydock 5.15 - another 24 runner race to try to unravel. The draw is not easy to predict either. With Fallon on board John O' Groats, I would imagine this one would start favourite at around 11-2. That is too short for me and it is worth looking elsewhere for some value : Charlie Parkes - would like the rains to stay away. Drawn 2 so should lead up the far rail. Decent each way claims if ground stays good or preferably firmer. Elvington Boy - will probably try and blast out and make all up the stands' rail from the 19 stall. Good 2nd last time to Atlantic Viking. Should go well again, especially if ground remains good or firmer. Beyond the Clouds - drawn 4 and will lie handy - probably track Charlie Parkes. Good winner for us last time at Beverley and should go well again. Seems to act on most going these days. Has the excellent Robert Winston on board. Ptarmigan Ridge - has run a couple of crackers this year in big handicaps (Newcastle and Musselburgh). Also ran a decent race last time at Epsom when 4th to Atlantic Viking. Has won over course and distance and with the jockey claiming 5, looks fairly weighted. Drawn 22. Taras Emperor - must enter equation if there is a deluge. Worth a punt if the ground goes soft or heavy. Whistler - drawn 11. Any rain would help. Been running quite consistently all year and could make the frame. To conclude : the draw bias varies here. If you decide to "play" then I suggest you back one horse either side. |
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