| 31/08/2002 | Message for Saturday 31 Aug |
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Message for Saturday 31st August and Sunday 1st September 2002 No bets but bonus analysis for the weekend Bet strength recommendations - none Horses to note - none Flat turf system bets : NDB - no qualifiers DSB - no qualifiers ------ Review of Friday racing 2 big wins from two bets for a MASSIVE profit on the day. Lunar Leo (Chester 3.35) WON at 11-2 for another winning horse to note bet. The horse was a much better price than anticipated, especially with plenty of positive tipping from the press as well. In the Sandown 5.00 the suggested permed forecast on the well drawn trio of Tomthevic, Storyteller and Fly More paid off with Storyteller winning and Tomthevic coming 2nd. With the perm, that pays just over 5-1. So if your overall stake was £20, you would get back a few pence over £103 plus your £20 stake. The remaining anlaysis saw in the Ayr 3.25, Sewmuch Character again disappointing, although Ayr had a serious amount of rain during the night and the morning. The rain scupperred the chances of my tentative two against the field Compton Arrow and Blackheath in the 4.00 at Ayr. Finally in the Ayr 5.10 Sea Storm would not have appreciated the rain softened ground, and hence was pulled out by connections. Saturday racing Chester 5.05 - low numbers should have a definite edge here so I would look at horses drawn 6 or lower. Shame that Charlie Parkes has bagged an outside draw in 14, because he would have been backable from a low draw. Let's look at some of the candidates : Betty's Pride - drawn 6. Close up 6th at York two races ago and faded from a high draw over 6f on Thursday. Should find it easier over shorter trip and better draw today. Mornin' Reserves - well drawn in 2 for a front runner. Only beaten a couple of lengths in tight York sprint last time even though he finished 10th. Whistler - has been in good form in some decent handicaps. Good 3rd from poor draw last time at Kempton. Got the best draw in 1 and although the horse tends to be held up, this may not be such a bad thing. The horse can hopefully stay next to the inside rail and make his challenge in the final furlong. There will be room on the inside of the final furlong, due to the false rail that has been used on the final bend this meeting (assuming they continue this policy). If this is the case, Whistler should get a clear run down the inside rail (just like Alafzar did when winning on Thursday. John O'Groats - drawn 4. Beaten favourite at a short price last time. Capable of winning this, but might find this course a bit sharp. Connect - drawn 5. Coming back to form and will need luck in running (as will Whistler). Has never run at Chester which is a negative, but cannot be dismissed from a good draw and a decent weight . To conclude : I am tempted with Whistler. If there had been some rain, then I think the horse would have been a definite bet. Still looks the each way value. John O' Groats, Betty's Pride and Mornin' Reserves look the big dangers. Sandown 4.20 - the sprint on Friday saw the draw played a huge part in the outcome of the race, and although the field size is smaller, high draws should be favoured once again. Several possibilities here - Mitcham (drawn 13), Tudor Wood (drawn 11) look the value prices at around 9-1. Budelli (drawn 12) had a poor draw at York last time and should go well, while Croeso Croeso (drawn 14) looks the likely favourite. I think the winner will come from these four. Some sort of forecast or even tricast perm looks a decent option here - I cannot see any real dangers to these four. Other thoughts : Ripon 2.45 - Bollin Janet (drawn 5) looks the one here. Sandown 3.10 - If Mullion gets the trip, then this looks a bit of each way value from a good draw. Chester 4.00 - Alafzar should go well again from a good draw under a 6 lb penalty. SUNDAY Curragh 3.45 - Candleriggs is out again although the low draw could be tricky. Clanboyo (drawn 22) looks better drawn, but I will probably back both to small stakes. Curragh 5.25 - Jessicas Dream should have some "cut" at last and will go well. |
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