Beverly 5f

Below is a brief extract from my 2004 book TrendhorsesDrawn2Win covering the 5f sprints at Beverley.

BEVERLEY (5f)

The 94 qualifying races gave the following statistics:

 
Top Third of Draw
Middle Third of Draw
Bottom Third of Draw
Winning %
62.8
28.7
8.5
Placed %
49.7
30.1
20.2

Statistical conclusion: high draws have a massive advantage, and it's extremely difficult to win from a low stall.

Points to note:
* The highest stall has accounted for 19 of the 94 winners (20.2%)
* If, in every race, you'd placed a 1pt reverse forecast on the horses drawn in the top two stalls, you'd have made a 93pt profit (49% profit on turnover).

 

Examining the handicap races only (36 races ) gave the following win statistics:

 
Top Third of Draw
Middle Third of Draw
Bottom Third of Draw
Winning %
66.6
27.8
5.6

Points to note:


* Nineteen of the 36 handicaps went to a runner drawn in one of the top three stalls. Statistically these draw positions have performed three times better than they should have.

* Eight of the 36 handicaps went to a horse from the top stall. If, in every handicap, you'd placed 1pt on the highest stall, you'd have made just over 12pts profit (a 34% profit on turnover). Backing solely the second highest stall in handicaps would have produced a profit of just below 8pts.

* If, in every handicap, you'd permed the top three stalls in six 1pt forecasts, you'd have made a massive 192pt profit (89% profit on turnover). Be warned though, perming the top two stalls in forecasts in handicaps only would have produced a loss.

More detailed summary of Beverley (5f)


The five-furlong course here is well known to be one of the most biased in the country, largely because a kink in the track at about the three-furlong point makes it hard for horses drawn out wide (low) to get close to the favoured far rail.


Clearly the draw punter has a good opportunity to make a profit, but it still pays to tread carefully, as there's a wide variety in terms race-class, ranging from Listed events through to sellers. The races to concentrate on are usually the handicaps, as this is definitely a specialists' track:Beyond The Clouds won in 00, 01 and 02, and has also been placed twice;
Off Hire won in 00 and 02;
Sir Sandrovitch won in 01 and 03 (from stall 5 of 20, five days after an amazing second from stall 1);
American Cousin won in 02 and 03, and also finished second twice in 99 from poor draws;
Catch The Cat won in 02 and 03, and also finished third twice in June last year from low draws;
Le Meridien won one apiece in 01, 02 and 03.


High draws have a massive advantage in handicaps, with 33 of the 36 such races in the period under review having been won by something drawn in the top half.
The advent of betting exchanges means runners drawn low can be laid (only two of the 216 runners drawn in the lowest six stalls from the aforementioned examples won, Sir Sandrovitch and Jodeeka at 7-2 and 10-1 respectively), meaning a very good profit could have been achieved.

A word of caution, though, many of the horses drawn 1-6 trade at big prices, and I'd advise not laying anything at 20-1+ just in case a 40-1 or 50-1 shot springs an upset.

To conclude, in big-field handicaps, concentrate on the top four or five stalls, giving preference to the highest stall, over the second highest, etc.

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