Today, it is the turn of Kempton to come under the "draw spotlight". I have collated data from 2000 to 2003, using races of 10 or more runners.

KEMPTON (5 Furlong)

The eight qualifying races gave the following statistics:

Statistical conclusion: a very small sample but high seems to have the advantage.

The seven handicaps gave the following win statistics:

KEMPTON (6 Furlong)

The 43 qualifying races gave the following statistics:

Statistical conclusion: high boxes do best, with middle draws struggling.

The 24 handicaps gave the following win statistics:

More detailed summary of Kempton (5f-6f)

Sprints are run on a separate course, so the track is not used for round-course races. Only a handful of five-furlong races are staged each season, but when combining the four-year statistics for both sprint trips (51 races), it becomes clear that the top third has a definite edge:

Higher draws have held sway generally, but one factor that always needs to be taken into consideration is the positioning of the stalls. In the past Kempton have placed the stalls on either the stands’ side (low) or far side (high), but last year often saw the stalls positioned down the centre.

There were only eight races with the stalls placed in the middle, so one cannot therefore make a definite judgement. The far-side/stands’-side positioning can be examined, though, and the figures produced are as follows (five and six furlongs):

Far side (25 races)

Stands’ side (18 races)

These results are highly informative, as it’s clear that when the stalls are placed on the far side higher draws have a definite advantage (the top stall is positioned next to the far rail).
When the stalls are placed on the stands’ side (low), higher draws still have the edge, but it is not so significant. The reason for this is that in fields of say 10-17, high numbers are still some distance from the favoured far rail.

To confuse matters further, there are times when the stands’ rail rides as quick as, or quicker than, the far rail.

Last year was a typical one for the track, with the bias swinging mid-season. From March through August high numbers had a massive advantage, as shown by the following results:

However, this changed in September, with the final three races showing no bias towards high numbers (indeed low to middle were favoured):

To conclude, horses drawn close to the far rail (high) are often at an advantage, but runners nearest to the stands’ rail (low) are, at worst, competitive from time to time. The positioning of the stalls is clearly an influential factor, but when they are placed on the far side high numbers are always the ones to concentrate on.

KEMPTON (1 mile)

The round course at Kempton is essentially a right-handed triangle of 1m5f with run-in of about three and a half furlongs. The Jubilee course (longest distance - 1m2f) joins round course before home turn. The mile trip can be run on either course, and both seem to have some draw bias.

The round course has staged more races than the jubilee course in the past four seasons, and over a mile there have been 29 qualifying races. The results produced the following statistics:

Higher draws seem to have an edge on the round course over a mile, while lower draws struggle. In handicaps, lower draws have been at a greater disadvantage winning just one of the 17 races (5.9%). In 03, there was a good example of the mile bias on 6 August, the Irish Post Apprentice Handicap going to Florian (drawn 14) from Castaigne (drawn 15) and Diliza (drawn 16). They were the top three-drawn horses in the field. The Jubilee course hosted 16 qualifying races over a mile between 00-03 and the results were as follows:

Although there were only 16 races, it seems likely that low draws at a fairly significant disadvantage. However, there has been only one qualifying race in the past two seasons. Over both courses, it is a disadvantage to be drawn low, and as with many courses, the draw bias is more significant in handicaps.

To conclude, it is best to concentrate therefore on middle to higher draws on both courses and the highest four stalls have the best record at both courses (round course 12 of 29 winners; Jubilee six of 16 winners).