CHESTER BIAS

With the 3 day Chester May meeting around the corner, hopefully this article will point you in the right direction of some winners. I have collated data from 2000 to 2003, using races of 10 or more runners. This article will concentrate on the sprint trips, although lower draws are also favoured from 7 furlongs to 1 mile 2 furlongs.

Chester (5 furlongs) 2000 – 2003

There have been 32 qualifying races during this four-year period. Here are the statistics :

Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw
Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning %
6.3
43.8
50
Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd %
11.4
36.5
52.1

Statistical conclusion : low draws are best, while high draws find it virtually impossible to win.

Points to note :

1. No double figure drawn horse has won in 4 years. 108 horses have tried and failed!

2. If, in every race, you simply placed 1 point on the lowest numbered stall, you would have made a healthy15 point profit (a 47% profit on turnover).

3. If, in every race, you permed the 3 lowest numbered stalls in six 1 point straight forecasts, you would have made a 92.5 point profit! (48% profit on turnover!).4. There were 25 handicap races which gave the following win statistics :

Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw
Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning %
4
36
60

5. 16 of the 25 handicap races were won by horses drawn in the four lowest numbered stalls.

Chester (6 furlongs) 2000 – 2003

There have been 11 qualifying races during this four-year period. Here are the statistics :

Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw
Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning %
18.2
27.3
54.5
Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd %
14.8
40.8
44.4

Statistical conclusion : low again have the edge at this distance although there have been only 11 qualifying races.

Points to note :

1. 5 of the 11 races were won by horses drawn in the two lowest numbered stalls.

2. If, in every race, you simply placed 1 point on the lowest numbered stall, you would have made an incredible 57.5 point profit (a remarkable 523 % profit on turnover).

3. There were only 6 handicap races which gave the following win statistics :

  Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning %
33.3
16.7
50

More Detailed Summary of Chester (5 & 6 furlongs)

Chester is an extremely sharp left-handed track where horses are constantly running round on the turn. Low numbers are next to the rail and therefore horses drawn wide (high) have further to travel, assuming they continue running round the outside. Horses drawn high who tack across to the rail have a wall of horses to pass in a short space of time. Horses who race up with the pace do well here, and this quirky track can suit specialists. Form at Chester can be unreliable - horses who run well at Chester rarely seem to follow up successfully at other tracks on their next start.

There are not that many sprints each year at Chester which probably explains why there are not more “dual” winners. However, the horses mentioned below have clearly shown a liking for the sprint course :

Damalis - 5 times successful in 1998, 2000 (twice), 2001 and 2003;
Bodfari Komaite - a winner twice in 2001;
Time N’ Time Again - 2 wins in 2001 and 2003 and placed 5 times (from only 9 course appearances);
Sir Sandrovitch - a win a piece in 2002 and 2003

The low draw bias is stronger at 5 furlongs than at 6, and it is worth paying special attention to the lowest four numbered stalls in 5 furlong handicaps especially, as 64% of all handicap races were won by one of these four stalls. One point to appreciate from betting standpoint is that the betting market is fully aware of the low draw bias at Chester and prices will be factored accordingly. To take advantage of a low draw at Chester, you need to break well and race prominently. Otherwise a slow start can negate a good low starting stall position.

To conclude, the sprint draw bias at Chester is one of the strongest in the country (especially over 5 furlongs). In 5 furlong handicaps concentrate on the lowest four (give preference to the lowest stall, over the second lowest, etc).

---------------

Looking for trends in specific races has been more popular over the past few years. The Racing Post, In the Know, Raceform Update, The Weekender, etc often look in detail at a particular race to see if any patterns or trends have emerged over a period of time. 10 years is the time span that is often used, although for this article a six-year period has been used. The draw will be the key factor discussed, along with any other trends that are significant. The race I am focussing on is not surprisingly from the May Chester meeting – the class B handicap over 5 furlongs, which is usually the first race of the final day of the meeting.

RACE – CERRUTI RATED HANDICAP (4 year old +) formerly the Norfolk Hotel Rated Handicap
COURSE – CHESTER
DISTANCE – 5 furlongs
MONTH – May (Thursday of the May meeting)
 
YEAR

NUMBER OF RUNNERS

DRAW POSITION of winner
DRAW POSITION of 2nd
DRAW POSITION of 3rd
1998
8
4
2
3
1999
10
6
1
2
2000
12
6
4
1
2001
12
8
2
5
2002
16
3
1
5
2003
14
1
5
6

DRAW TRENDS

Draws 6 or lower have done well in this event as one would expect, with a low draw a key factor at this distance. None of the 19 horses that landed a double figure stall managed to reach the frame. Horses drawn 1 have finished in the frame in 4 out of the 6 years.

OTHER TRENDS

1. Damalis trained by Eric Alston has won this race three times in 2000, 2001 and 2003. In 2002 he had little chance from the 12 draw. Jockey Willie Supple rode her on all three wins, but was not on board in 2002 when she failed to win.

2. All six winners had shown little worthwhile form coming into the race. None had reached the frame on their previous start, with the best finishing position 6th.

3. Horses that race near or up to the pace have won 5 of the 6 races with 2 runners “making all”. Only Compton Banker in 2002 did not initially race close to the pace (raced in mid division). The 6 horses that led the race early finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd and 1st.


CONCLUSION

Low drawn horses have the advantage and stalls 6 or lower are the ones to concentrate on. Damalis will probably go for 4th victory in 2004 and granted a low draw she will surely go close at a track she loves. Horses that race prominently and drawn low are the ideal combination, and if one can predict the horse that is likely to lead, there is an excellent chance they will reach the first 3 at worst.


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Copyright 2005 www.Drawn2Win.co.uk

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