ALL WEATHER STATS (Nov 2003)


With the all weather soon to be underway I thought it might be a good idea to give you some statistics to mull over :

Wolverhampton (1993 to 2002)

Performance of forecast favourites :

Conditions races : strike rate 29.5 % ROI – 24.0 %
Maidens : strike rate 38.8 % ROI – 4.4 %
Sellers : strike rate 33.3 % ROI – 5.0 %
Claimers : strike rate 38.2 % ROI + 6.0 %
All age handicaps : strike rate 20.1 % ROI – 25.8 %
3yo only handicaps : strike rate 28.8 % ROI – 13.7 %
2yo only handicaps : strike rate 24.6 % ROI – 13.0 % (NB only 61 races)

As we can see forecast favourite backers would make a loss overall, but there look to be three areas to concentrate on – namely maidens, sellers and claimers. Indeed, claiming races have been a profitable area for punters since the start of the all weather at Wolverhampton, albeit a small one. For favourite backers out there, claiming races at Wolverhampton may be an area to concentrate on for I have unearthed a very simple system that has been profitable in 9 out of the 10 years. The system rules are :

1. Wolverhampton (aw) only.
2. Claiming races only.
3. Forecast favourite.
4. Top three in the weights.

That simple system would have produced the following results :

Bets 262
Wins 116
Strike rate 44.3 %
Profit + 42 points
ROI + 16 %

A steady return, if not one you could retire on!!

Performance of last time out winners :

Conditions races : strike rate 24.8 % ROI – 26.0 %
Sellers : strike rate 26.0 % ROI – 17.3 %
Claimers : strike rate 26.2 % ROI – 4.0 %
All age handicaps : strike rate 16.6 % ROI – 24.2 %
3yo only handicaps : strike rate 21.9 % ROI – 21.4 %
2yo only handicaps : strike rate 21.1 % ROI + 0.2 % (NB only 76 qualifiers).

As with forecast favourites, there is no real edge to be consistently gained backing last time out winners. Indeed, last time out winners seem to do worse than forecast favourites. The last time out winners contesting 2 year old handicaps make a minute profit, but the sample is very small. Claiming races show only a small loss and once again this looks the best area to concentrate on. The best claiming race system I can find at Wolverhampton combines the position in the market, with recent form, as well as using a weights filter similar to the one I used earlier.

The system rules are :

1. Wolverhampton (aw) only.
2. Claiming races only.
3. Top 4 in betting forecast.
4. Last time out – placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd.
5. Finishing position 2 runs ago – placed 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th .
6. Top two in the weights.

That system would have produced the following results :

Bets 136
Wins 61
Strike rate 44.9 %
Profit + 40 points
ROI + 29.4 %

Those figures look quite promising, but there were 5 winning years and 4 losing years, which makes me feel that this is prime example of back-fitting a system to make it look better than it actually is.


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