With less than 7 weeks to the new turf season (as
I write this article), I thought I would share with
you my latest draw research. I will be looking at one
of the most interesting draw biased courses  York.
I have collated data from 2000 to 2003, using races
of 10 or more runners. On the straight course (5 and
6 furlongs), middle to low draws have held the advantage
over the past four seasons. However, in 2003, higher
draws were definitely more competitive and it is not
an easy draw bias to confidently predict. On the round
course however, there are several distances that offer
an advantage to lower draws horses, and for the draw
punter, races on the round course are worth close inspection.
Over 7 furlongs there were 27 qualifying races during
this fouryear period. Here are the
statistics :

Top “third” of
the draw 
Middle “third” of the draw 
Bottom“third” of the draw 
Winning percentage 
29.6 
29.6 
40.7 
Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage 
29.6 
32.1 
38.3 
Lower draws have a marginal advantage, although it
is not as strong as one would expect. The bias seems
to increase in handicaps, although 19 races is a relatively
small sample :

Top “third” of
the draw 
Middle “third” of the draw 
Bottom“third” of the draw 
Winning percentage 
36.8 
15.8 
47.4 
The bottom “third” of the draw
provided 9 of the 19 handicap winners. There are a couple
of points worth noting over this 7 furlong trip :
1. If, in every handicap race, you placed a 1 point
reverse forecast on the two lowest numbered stalls,
you would have made a massive 241 point profit (an excellent
634% profit on turnover).
2. If, in every handicap race, you had placed 1 point
on the second lowest numbered stall, you would have
made a 23.75 point profit (125% profit on turnover).
Over 1 mile there were 33 qualifying races giving the
following set of percentages :

Top “third” of
the draw 
Middle “third” of the draw 
Bottom“third” of the draw 
Winning percentage 
24.2 
33.3 
42.4 
Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage 
28.3 
30.3 
41.4 
Once again, low draws seem to hold a small, but tangible
advantage. The advantage of being drawn low seems to
increase when the field size increases. There were 17
races with 15 or more runners giving the following statistics
:

Top “third” of
the draw 
Middle “third” of the draw 
Bottom“third” of the draw 
Winning percentage 
0 
29.4 
70.6 
Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage 
21.6 
27.5 
51 
No wins for any horse drawn in the top “third”
of the draw. Indeed no wins for any horse drawn in one
of the eight highest numbered stalls. So 136 horses
have tried and failed to win from these stalls.
There were 24 handicap races over 1 mile giving the
following results :

Top “third” of
the draw 
Middle “third” of the draw 
Bottom“third” of the draw 
Winning percentage 
16.7 
33.3 
50 
Some points worth noting about 1 mile handicaps at
York :
1. The lowest two numbered stalls provided 7 of the
24 handicap winners (29.2%).
2. In handicaps with 16 or more runners, horses drawn
in the bottom “third” of the draw
provided 10 of the 11 winners.
3. If, in every handicap race, you simply placed 1
point on the second lowest numbered stall, you would
have made a healthy 59 point profit (246% profit on
turnover). The lowest numbered stall was in profit also,
but only 7 ½ points.
4. If, in every handicap race, you permed the 5 lowest
numbered stalls in sixty 1 point tricasts, you would
have made a 618 point profit (43% profit on turnover).
Over 1 mile 2f & 85yds, there were 29 qualifying
races during this fouryear period. Here are the statistics
:

Top “third” of
the draw 
Middle “third” of the draw 
Bottom“third” of the draw 
Winning percentage 
20.7 
37.9 
41.4 
Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage 
23 
39.1 
37.9 
Lower draws continue to sway, while high draws are
at a disadvantage. 13 of the 29 races were won by horses
drawn in the bottom four numbered stalls, while in races
with 16 or more runners, 8 of 16 races were won by these
lowest four.
There were 20 handicap races over 1 mile 2f & 85yds
giving the following results :

Top “third” of
the draw 
Middle “third” of the draw 
Bottom“third” of the draw 
Winning percentage 
25 
35 
40 
There are a further two distances at York where low
draws hold an advantage. The first of these is over
1 mile 4 furlongs. There were 29 qualifying races over
1 mile 4 furlongs during this fouryear period producing
these statistics :

Top “third” of
the draw 
Middle “third” of the draw 
Bottom“third” of the draw 
Winning percentage 
10.3 
41.4 
48.3 
Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage 
13.8 
42.5 
43.7 
The lower draw, the better, while high draws have
a dreadful record. 23 of these races were handicaps
and high draws managed just 2 wins. The percentages
are shown below :

Top “third” of
the draw 
Middle “third” of the draw 
Bottom“third” of the draw 
Winning percentage 
8.7 
43.5 
47.8 
Some points worth noting about all 1 mile 4 furlong
races at York over the past four seasons :
1. No horse drawn in either of the two highest numbered
stalls won a single race.
2. If, in every race, you placed a 1 point reverse
forecast on the two lowest numbered stalls, you would
have made an impressive 131 point profit (a highly satisfactory
226% profit on turnover).
3. The bottom half of the draw provided 22 winners;
the top half just 7.
4. Races with 18 or more runners saw the eight highest
numbered stalls produce only 1
winner.
The final distance where a draw bias exists at York
is over 1 mile 6 furlongs. There were 21 qualifying
races during this fouryear period and all races were
handicaps. Here are the statistics :

Top “third” of
the draw 
Middle “third” of the draw 
Bottom“third” of the draw 
Winning percentage 
33.3 
9.5 
57.1 
Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage 
27 
31.7 
41.3 
Low draws once again have the advantage. All the races
were handicaps, and it should be noted that the lowest
drawn horse won 6 of the 21 races (28.6%).
York is a course of definite interest to the draw punter.
With five distances showing a draw bias, there should
be plenty of good betting opportunities each year. Generally
speaking, big field handicaps look the best betting
medium, with it worth concentrating in particular on
the four lowest drawn horses.
For those readers interested, if you contact
me at daverenham@drawn2win.co.uk
I will give you details of a new book that I have written
with Andrew Mount (author of Trend Horses). 