YORK BIAS REVIEW for 2004

With less than 7 weeks to the new turf season (as I write this article), I thought I would share with you my latest draw research. I will be looking at one of the most interesting draw biased courses - York. I have collated data from 2000 to 2003, using races of 10 or more runners. On the straight course (5 and 6 furlongs), middle to low draws have held the advantage over the past four seasons. However, in 2003, higher draws were definitely more competitive and it is not an easy draw bias to confidently predict. On the round course however, there are several distances that offer an advantage to lower draws horses, and for the draw punter, races on the round course are worth close inspection.

Over 7 furlongs there were 27 qualifying races during this four-year period. Here are the
statistics :

  Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning percentage 29.6 29.6 40.7

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage

29.6 32.1 38.3

Lower draws have a marginal advantage, although it is not as strong as one would expect. The bias seems to increase in handicaps, although 19 races is a relatively small sample :

  Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning percentage 36.8 15.8 47.4


The bottom “third” of the draw provided 9 of the 19 handicap winners. There are a couple of points worth noting over this 7 furlong trip :

1. If, in every handicap race, you placed a 1 point reverse forecast on the two lowest numbered stalls, you would have made a massive 241 point profit (an excellent 634% profit on turnover).

2. If, in every handicap race, you had placed 1 point on the second lowest numbered stall, you would have made a 23.75 point profit (125% profit on turnover).

Over 1 mile there were 33 qualifying races giving the following set of percentages :

  Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning percentage 24.2 33.3 42.4

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage

28.3 30.3 41.4

Once again, low draws seem to hold a small, but tangible advantage. The advantage of being drawn low seems to increase when the field size increases. There were 17 races with 15 or more runners giving the following statistics :

  Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning percentage 0 29.4 70.6

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage

21.6 27.5 51

No wins for any horse drawn in the top “third” of the draw. Indeed no wins for any horse drawn in one of the eight highest numbered stalls. So 136 horses have tried and failed to win from these stalls.

There were 24 handicap races over 1 mile giving the following results :

  Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning percentage 16.7 33.3 50

Some points worth noting about 1 mile handicaps at York :

1. The lowest two numbered stalls provided 7 of the 24 handicap winners (29.2%).

2. In handicaps with 16 or more runners, horses drawn in the bottom “third” of the draw
provided 10 of the 11 winners.

3. If, in every handicap race, you simply placed 1 point on the second lowest numbered stall, you would have made a healthy 59 point profit (246% profit on turnover). The lowest numbered stall was in profit also, but only 7 ½ points.

4. If, in every handicap race, you permed the 5 lowest numbered stalls in sixty 1 point tricasts, you would have made a 618 point profit (43% profit on turnover).

Over 1 mile 2f & 85yds, there were 29 qualifying races during this four-year period. Here are the statistics :

  Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning percentage 20.7 37.9 41.4

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage

23 39.1 37.9

Lower draws continue to sway, while high draws are at a disadvantage. 13 of the 29 races were won by horses drawn in the bottom four numbered stalls, while in races with 16 or more runners, 8 of 16 races were won by these lowest four.

There were 20 handicap races over 1 mile 2f & 85yds giving the following results :

  Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning percentage 25 35 40

 

There are a further two distances at York where low draws hold an advantage. The first of these is over 1 mile 4 furlongs. There were 29 qualifying races over 1 mile 4 furlongs during this four-year period producing these statistics :

  Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning percentage 10.3 41.4 48.3

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage

13.8 42.5 43.7

The lower draw, the better, while high draws have a dreadful record. 23 of these races were handicaps and high draws managed just 2 wins. The percentages are shown below :

  Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning percentage

8.7

43.5 47.8

Some points worth noting about all 1 mile 4 furlong races at York over the past four seasons :

1. No horse drawn in either of the two highest numbered stalls won a single race.

2. If, in every race, you placed a 1 point reverse forecast on the two lowest numbered stalls, you would have made an impressive 131 point profit (a highly satisfactory 226% profit on turnover).

3. The bottom half of the draw provided 22 winners; the top half just 7.

4. Races with 18 or more runners saw the eight highest numbered stalls produce only 1
winner.

The final distance where a draw bias exists at York is over 1 mile 6 furlongs. There were 21 qualifying races during this four-year period and all races were handicaps. Here are the statistics :

  Top “third” of
the draw
Middle “third” of the draw Bottom“third” of the draw
Winning percentage 33.3 9.5 57.1

Placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd percentage

27 31.7 41.3


Low draws once again have the advantage. All the races were handicaps, and it should be noted that the lowest drawn horse won 6 of the 21 races (28.6%).

York is a course of definite interest to the draw punter. With five distances showing a draw bias, there should be plenty of good betting opportunities each year. Generally speaking, big field handicaps look the best betting medium, with it worth concentrating in particular on the four lowest drawn horses.

For those readers interested, if you contact me at daverenham@drawn2win.co.uk I will give you details of a new book that I have written with Andrew Mount (author of Trend Horses).


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Copyright 2005 www.Drawn2Win.co.uk

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